Mass aggregation. Short cards. A published record.

Nate Silver–style modeling for the average NFL fan who cares about prediction markets and fantasy. One observation per screen in the app. Headlines here. Depth in PredictTok.

iPhone app coming soon — headlines and accuracy live here meanwhile.

Today's signals

Notable · game_preview

PHI at TEN · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Eagles favored by 7.0 points at Tennessee with a 70% win probability, while the market has Philadelphia at 76% to win.

Notable · game_preview

CLE at TB · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Buccaneers favored by -8.5 (80% to win) · total 40.5. Browns travels 936 miles. Our power rating is slightly higher on Browns.

Notable · game_preview

GB at NYJ · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Packers favored by +4.5 (63% to win) · total 44.5. Our power rating is slightly higher on Jets.

Notable · game_preview

PIT at NE · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Patriots favored by -5.5 (69% to win) · total 41.5. Our power rating is slightly higher on Steelers.

Notable · game_preview

CIN at HOU · Sun 1:00 PM ET

The model sees Houston with a 68% win probability at home against Cincinnati, higher than the market's 59%.

Notable · game_preview

MIN at CHI · Sun 1:00 PM ET

The Bears are 66% favorites at home despite MIN's 8-point Elo edge and equal 7-day rest for both teams.

Notable · game_preview

NO at BAL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Ravens favored by -8.5 (80% to win) · total 47.5. Saints travels 998 miles and crosses time zones. Our power rating is slightly higher on Saints.

Notable · game_preview

CAR at ATL · Sun 1:00 PM ET

Atlanta hosts Carolina as 1.5-point underdogs despite the model favoring the Falcons with 65% win probability.

Notable · game_preview

LV at LAC · Sun 4:05 PM ET

The Chargers are 7-point home favorites against the Raiders with a 70% market win probability, while the model sees LAC at 69%.

Notable · game_preview

JAX at DEN · Sun 4:05 PM ET

The Broncos are 60% to win at home against the Jaguars, with Denver holding a 14-point Elo edge despite Jacksonville traveling 1468 miles across time zones.

Notable · game_preview

MIA at SF · Sun 4:25 PM ET

49ers favored by -13.5 (90% to win) · total 45.5. Dolphins travels 2555 miles and crosses time zones. Our power rating is slightly higher on Dolphins.

Notable · game_preview

WAS at DAL · Sun 4:25 PM ET

Cowboys favored by -3.5 (65% to win) · total 50.5. Commanders travels 1207 miles and crosses time zones.

Notable · game_preview

SEA at ARI · Sun 4:25 PM ET

Seattle travels 1104 miles as 72% favorites despite Arizona holding a 3.0-point model edge over the 4.5-point market spread.

Notable · game_preview

IND at KC · Sun 8:20 PM ET

Chiefs favored by -6.5 (75% to win) · total 48.5. Our power rating is slightly higher on Colts.

Notable · game_preview

NYG at LA · Mon 8:15 PM ET

Rams favored by -7.0 (76% to win) · total 48.5. Our power rating is slightly higher on Giants.

Strong · injury_impact

Sam Darnold is Out — volume moves to Drew Lock, Jalen Milroe

Sam Darnold listed Out. Vacated share is redistributed toward Drew Lock, Jalen Milroe.

Notable · game_preview

ATL at GB · Thu 8:15 PM ET

Packers favored by -4.5 (63% to win) · total 44.5. Packers is on a short week (4 days rest).

Notable · injury_impact

DJ Moore is Questionable — volume moves to Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer

DJ Moore listed Questionable. Vacated share is redistributed toward Khalil Shakir, Keon Coleman, Josh Palmer.

Notable · book_disagreement

Tetairoa McMillan rec yards: books 4.0 apart

Sportsbooks posted different rec yards numbers for Tetairoa McMillan. fanatics is 55.5; espnbet is 59.5. Use the disagreement to shop a better number for a side you already like — not as a reason to invent a side. Informational only.

Notable · book_disagreement

Bryce Young rush yards: books 3.0 apart

Sportsbooks posted different rush yards numbers for Bryce Young. fanatics is 10.5; draftkings is 13.5. Use the disagreement to shop a better number for a side you already like — not as a reason to invent a side. Informational only.

Notable · injury_impact

D'Andre Swift is Questionable — volume moves to Kyle Monangai, Roschon Johnson, Salvon Ahmed

D'Andre Swift listed Questionable. Vacated share is redistributed toward Kyle Monangai, Roschon Johnson, Salvon Ahmed.

Notable · book_disagreement

Tennessee Titans at New York Giants spread: books 2.5 points apart

Sportsbooks disagree on the point spread for Tennessee Titans at New York Giants. polymarket is +3.5; unibet_nl is +6.0. A wider home number is harder for the favorite. Take the friendlier spread for the side you already wanted. Informational only.

Notable · injury_impact

Zay Flowers is Questionable — volume moves to Rashod Bateman, Ja'Kobi Lane, Devontez Walker

Zay Flowers listed Questionable. Vacated share is redistributed toward Rashod Bateman, Ja'Kobi Lane, Devontez Walker.

Notable · injury_impact

Michael Penix Jr. is Questionable — volume moves to Tua Tagovailoa, Cooper Rush, Trevor Siemian

Michael Penix Jr. listed Questionable. Vacated share is redistributed toward Tua Tagovailoa, Cooper Rush, Trevor Siemian.

Notable · injury_impact

Ty Johnson is Out — volume moves to James Cook, Ben VanSumeren, Ray Davis

Ty Johnson listed Out. Vacated share is redistributed toward James Cook, Ben VanSumeren, Ray Davis.

Notable · book_disagreement

Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers spread: books 2.0 points apart

Sportsbooks disagree on the point spread for Arizona Cardinals at San Francisco 49ers. polymarket is -10.5; draftkings is -8.5. A wider home number is harder for the favorite. Take the friendlier spread for the side you already wanted. Informational only.

Notable · book_disagreement

Bryce Young pass yards: books 8.0 apart

Sportsbooks posted different pass yards numbers for Bryce Young. betparx is 216.5; espnbet is 224.5. Use the disagreement to shop a better number for a side you already like — not as a reason to invent a side. Informational only.

Notable · book_disagreement

Bijan Robinson rush yards: books 4.0 apart

Sportsbooks posted different rush yards numbers for Bijan Robinson. espnbet is 79.5; betparx is 83.5. Use the disagreement to shop a better number for a side you already like — not as a reason to invent a side. Informational only.

Notable · line_move

Chuba Hubbard rush yards moved +3.0 from 52.5 to 55.5

Consensus rush yards opened 52.5 and is now 55.5.

Slight · market_gap

Chuba Hubbard rush yards: pick'em 55.5 vs market 53.5

Market leans UNDER at 43% versus the prizepicks line of 55.5. Pick'em lines are indicative.

Slight · market_gap

Bijan Robinson rush yards: pick'em 83.5 vs market 81.5

Market leans UNDER at 46% versus the prizepicks line of 83.5. Pick'em lines are indicative.

Slight · market_gap

Bryce Young rush yards: pick'em 12.5 vs market 13.5

Market leans OVER at 60% versus the prizepicks line of 12.5. Pick'em lines are indicative.

Slight · market_gap

Bryce Young pass yards: pick'em 222.5 vs market 221.5

Market leans UNDER at 49% versus the prizepicks line of 222.5. Pick'em lines are indicative.

Slight · market_gap

Bijan Robinson receptions: pick'em 5.0 vs market 4.5

Market leans OVER at 51% versus the prizepicks line of 5.0. Pick'em lines are indicative.

Slight · money_flow

Seattle Seahawks at Arizona Cardinals: Kalshi has the Seattle Seahawks at 65% to win

On Kalshi this contract is “Will the Seattle Seahawks win this game?” YES means the Seattle Seahawks win. NO means they lose (so the Arizona Cardinals win). Kalshi has YES at 65%. $26,045 traded. The order book is 61% heavier on NO. Kalshi and the books agree within 0 points; the crowd is not fighting the books. Prediction-market tape is a second opinion next to sportsbook moneylines. If it agrees with the favorite, the crowd is not fighting the books. If it fades a team the books like, wait or shop the moneyline. We do not take bets in PredictTok.

Slight · news_impact

Kyrie offers to pay Al-Shaair's fine for tribute to slain Palestinian girl

Slight · fantasy_start_sit

Start: Tom Kennedy (12.3 PPR, replacement 11.0)

Tom Kennedy projects 12.3 PPR versus 11.0 replacement.

Slight · line_move

Chuba Hubbard rec yards moved -1.0 from 14.5 to 13.5

Consensus rec yards opened 14.5 and is now 13.5.

Slight · line_move

Drake London rec yards moved -1.0 from 56.5 to 55.5

Consensus rec yards opened 56.5 and is now 55.5.

Slight · fantasy_start_sit

Start: Nikko Remigio (13.0 PPR, replacement 11.0)

Nikko Remigio projects 13.0 PPR versus 11.0 replacement.

Slight · fantasy_start_sit

Start: Marvin Mims Jr. (12.6 PPR, replacement 11.0)

Marvin Mims Jr. projects 12.6 PPR versus 11.0 replacement.

Slight · news_impact

Rams, Giants looking to build on disparate Week 1 showings when they meet on Monday night

Slight · fantasy_start_sit

Start: Michael Bandy (13.7 PPR, replacement 11.0)

Michael Bandy projects 13.7 PPR versus 11.0 replacement.

Slight · line_move

Kyle Pitts rec yards moved +1.0 from 29.5 to 30.5

Consensus rec yards opened 29.5 and is now 30.5.

Slight · news_impact

Week 2 insider notebook: Latest buzz on QB1 uncertainty, plus more

Slight · fantasy_start_sit

Start: Tay Martin (12.3 PPR, replacement 11.0)

Tay Martin projects 12.3 PPR versus 11.0 replacement.

Slight · money_flow

Minnesota Vikings at Chicago Bears: Kalshi has the Chicago Bears at 65% to win

On Kalshi this contract is “Will the Chicago Bears win this game?” YES means the Chicago Bears win. NO means they lose (so the Minnesota Vikings win). Kalshi has YES at 65%. $45,935 traded. The order book is 92% heavier on NO. Kalshi and the books agree within 0 points; the crowd is not fighting the books. Prediction-market tape is a second opinion next to sportsbook moneylines. If it agrees with the favorite, the crowd is not fighting the books. If it fades a team the books like, wait or shop the moneyline. We do not take bets in PredictTok.

Slight · money_flow

Green Bay Packers at New York Jets: Kalshi has the Green Bay Packers at 62% to win

On Kalshi this contract is “Will the Green Bay Packers win this game?” YES means the Green Bay Packers win. NO means they lose (so the New York Jets win). Kalshi has YES at 62%. $29,744 traded. The order book is 87% heavier on NO. Kalshi and the books agree within 1 points; the crowd is not fighting the books. Prediction-market tape is a second opinion next to sportsbook moneylines. If it agrees with the favorite, the crowd is not fighting the books. If it fades a team the books like, wait or shop the moneyline. We do not take bets in PredictTok.

Slight · line_move